Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago(来源：美国国家地理杂志)
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html

正文：“Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.

After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.
……
As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.

……
"Locked in a Journal"

There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.

"We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal."

”

（中方）科学家驳美杂志指责我国漠视地震科研成果说法（来源：新浪新闻网）
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-05-22/184415597352.shtml
“周荣军研究员回忆说，通过中美欧三方的专家研究后集体形成的学术论文《青藏高原东缘北川和彭灌断裂活动构造》，确实得出了北川映秀断层是活断层的结论，某些地断在全新世有过活动，断层是以逆走滑为特征。“我可以负责任地说，论文通篇没有做出任何地震预报。只是在结论中指出这些断层有足够的长度，足以发生振动地面的地震，成为这些地区地震危险性的潜在震缘。简单地说就是我们知道这些地方容易发生地震，但何时会地震我们无从知晓，因为这个时间跨度可能数十甚至上百年。”

　　李勇教授则表示，论文中没有“地壳撞击的能量在四川北川县积累，并将以地震的形式释放出来”这句原话。“我们在论文中只提到了北川断层存在地震发生的可能，至于什么时候地震，会发生多大级别的地震根本没有涉及”，李勇教授表示，对青藏高原东缘和四川盆地西部活动断层的地质研究中国政府一向重视，“中国政府对这一地域的地质研究保持着高度重视的态度，国家自然科学基金委连续六年拿出资金专题来进行龙门山逆冲和走滑作用的研究。说我们国家不重视科学家的研究成果，那绝对是不负责任的说法。”